SpaceX IPO Valuation Sparks Trader Frenzy, Bitcoin Holdings Shine
As SpaceX prepares for its Nasdaq debut with an anticipated valuation of $1.8 trillion, a significant portion of traders on the Hyperliquid platform are betting on an even higher price. Pre-IPO perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid are currently pricing the aerospace giant as high as $2.15 trillion, indicating strong bullish sentiment ahead of the official listing.
Trader Sentiment Heavily Skewed Long, Yet Many Face Losses
Analysis of open positions on Hyperliquid’s SpaceX contract reveals a striking imbalance. Out of 4,528 active traders, a substantial 85% have taken long positions, while only 15% are short. This overwhelming bullish lean, however, hasn’t translated into widespread profits. A significant 78% of all position holders are currently operating at a loss, with only 1,001 traders in the black.
The pre-IPO market has seen considerable activity, with over $450 million in notional volume traded across 917,000 transactions in just the past three weeks. Notably, some of the largest short positions are held by institutional players, including Cumberland, which holds a $3.1 million short, and several other large shorts ranging from $2.5 million to $4.5 million.
The volume on Hyperliquid’s pre-IPO perpetuals has surged dramatically, jumping from under $5 million daily to over $50 million. This surge occurred even as trading volumes for major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum remained near multi-quarter lows on the platform.
SpaceX’s Significant Unrealized Bitcoin Gains
SpaceX’s S-1 filing revealed a substantial holding of 18,712 Bitcoin on its balance sheet, currently valued at approximately $1.4 billion. The company acquired these assets at an average cost near $35,000 per coin, resulting in an estimated $789 million in unrealized gains. Unlike some other corporate investors, SpaceX has not divested any of its Bitcoin holdings.
The $75 billion offering is reportedly oversubscribed, with demand exceeding the available shares. In a move to broaden accessibility, SpaceX has allocated up to 30% of the deal to retail investors through popular platforms such as Robinhood, Fidelity, Charles Schwab, SoFi, and E*Trade – a significantly larger portion than typically reserved.
Beyond US markets, platforms like Kraken and Bybit are offering tokenized exposure to SpaceX’s stock, extending reach to over 110 countries. The accessibility through various channels raises questions about the funding sources for these allocations.
Crypto Market Stability Amidst IPO Allocations
On-chain data currently shows no clear indications of abnormal stablecoin outflows from the cryptocurrency markets that would suggest a mass liquidation to fund SpaceX allocations. The flow of major stablecoins like USDC and Tether has remained within typical ranges, even during recent market sell-offs. Similarly, Bitcoin exchange withdrawals appear more consistent with dip-buying behavior rather than a large-scale cash-raising effort.
The most significant drain on crypto assets has been observed in spot ETFs, which experienced outflows totaling $4.4 billion over a 13-day period before a recent modest inflow. The extent to which retail crypto holders have funded their participation in the SpaceX offering will likely become clearer when platforms like Robinhood and Coinbase report their June trading volumes next month.
The situation highlights how traditional markets and emerging digital asset spaces are increasingly intertwined. While centralized stablecoins can be subject to issuer control, raising concerns about potential freezes or censorship, the underlying stability observed here suggests a growing resilience in self-custody options and decentralized financial infrastructure.
